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Conceptually expanding and testing future expert elicitation methodologies and its outputs in CReDo


Daniel Block

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About This File

CReDo is a climate change adaptation digital twin that brings together data from the energy (UK Power Networks), water (Anglian Water) and telecommunications (BT Group) sectors with weather event data with the aim to understand infrastructure interdependencies, asset and system climate derived failure impacts.

In order to generate relevant insights to support our partner’s needs, CReDo needs to resolve what the impact will be on individual assets. That said, the highly interdependent nature of these infrastructure networks, such as key water assets relying on power supply assets to be operational, mean that to reliably model the impact of weather events, CReDo also needs to resolve how individual asset failures will cascade and impact other assets that are connected to them (both in their own and other infrastructure networks) This ability to obtain cross-sector insights is CReDo’s main pathway to creating value and impact in the UK infrastructure landscape.

This report focuses on one component of the CReDo modelling and insight generation process, the individual asset modelling. The work done in phase 1 (please refer to the CReDo technical report 3: assessing asset failure available in the DT Hub for more detail) demonstrated how it is possible to elicit from asset owners the probabilities that each of their assets might fail in a particular future flood scenario. It also demonstrated how to use the outputs of an expert elicitation methodology to build Bayesian Network models that could potentially be implemented in CReDo. This report outlines the follow-up foundational work that was completed during the second phase of the project (in the 2022/23 financial year); this work should be taken as a further piece of development for the concepts introduced during the first phase. To fully understand this report and its implications, it is advised to read the phase 1 report that was introduced above.

This document is only intended to provide a high-level view of the additional development work done during CReDo Phase 2. This has been focused on investigating how to overcome some of the drawbacks of the expert elicitation method that was tested in the first phase of the project. This document will:

 

·         provide a high-level description of the modified methodology used for expert elicitation sessions in phase 2.

·         list the lessons learnt obtained by running new expert elicitation sessions using the modified methodology.

·         outline the outputs and data obtained by using the modified methodology without providing any details that could be considered sensitive by asset owners.

·         provide a general view of the next steps needed to further develop this area of CReDo.


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