The Ofwat-funded CReDo Extreme Heat project in particular aims to address the water sector’s uncertainty around the impact of extreme heat events on asset failure.   

Why is this project important?

The UK water sector is only just beginning to understand the effect of extreme heat on asset failure. This lack of understanding is primarily due to temperatures of over 40°C, as seen in summer 2022, having never previously been experienced in the UK. During this event, many water assets were impacted by heat or required emergency cooling to maintain normal operation.  

By 2070, summer temperature increases of up to 6.8˚C are expected in the UK alongside an increased frequency of prolonged extreme heat events. Without a better understanding of how these extreme heat events will impact water company assets and associated critical utility infrastructure, and better resilience planning across systems and sectors, the impact to communities will only increase.

The goal

The aim of the CReDo Extreme Heat Project was to improve the water sector’s understanding of the impact of extreme heat on assets through the development of:

• Probabalistic Asset Failure Models, supported through expert elicitation methodology to obtain data on the impact of extreme heat on assets which was not otherwise available.

• The CReDo Asset Risk Tool, an online extreme heat projection module developed for use by the water sector to forecast future extreme heat events and their probable impact on assets and systems.

Who can benefit from the CReDo asset risk tool?

• Strategic Planning – The Tool can be used to understand asset resilience and vulnerabilities to extreme heat scenarios throughout the planning cycle. This will help with prioritisation of organisational investment and decision making, and support resilience reporting.

• Emergency Planning – The Tool can provide users with a better understanding of risk to assets and vulnerabilities in the instance of extreme heat scenarios such as a heatwave.

• Infrastructure Design – The Tool can be used to support and inform the design of water assets. It can support resilience assessments required during the design phase and help the design team to design and deliver assets that are more resilient to extreme heat scenarios.